Predicting Reading Problems 6 Years Into the Future: Dynamic Assessment Reduces Bias and Increases Classification Accuracy Purpose The purpose of this study was to examine how well a kindergarten dynamic assessment of decoding predicts future reading difficulty at 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th grade and to determine whether the dynamic assessment improves the predictive validity of traditional static kindergarten reading measures. Method With a ... Research Article
Research Article  |   October 24, 2018
Predicting Reading Problems 6 Years Into the Future: Dynamic Assessment Reduces Bias and Increases Classification Accuracy
 
Author Affiliations & Notes
  • Douglas B. Petersen
    Department of Communication Disorders, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT
  • Shelbi L. Gragg
    Sweetwater County Child Development Center, Rock Springs, WY
  • Trina D. Spencer
    Department of Child and Family Studies, University of South Florida, Tampa
  • Disclosure: Douglas B. Petersen and Trina D. Spencer are entitled to royalties from sales of the Predictive Early Assessment of Reading and Language (PEARL), a dynamic assessment of reading and language similar to that used in this research study. Shelbi L. Gragg has declared that no competing interests existed at the time of publication.
    Disclosure: Douglas B. Petersen and Trina D. Spencer are entitled to royalties from sales of the Predictive Early Assessment of Reading and Language (PEARL), a dynamic assessment of reading and language similar to that used in this research study. Shelbi L. Gragg has declared that no competing interests existed at the time of publication. ×
  • Correspondence to Douglas B. Petersen: dpeter39@byu.edu
  • Editor-in-Chief: Tiffany Hogan
    Editor-in-Chief: Tiffany Hogan×
  • Publisher Note: This article is part of the Clinical Forum: Dyslexia.
    Publisher Note: This article is part of the Clinical Forum: Dyslexia.×
Article Information
Cultural & Linguistic Diversity / Language Disorders / Reading & Writing Disorders / Attention, Memory & Executive Functions / Clinical Forum: Dyslexia / Research Articles
Research Article   |   October 24, 2018
Predicting Reading Problems 6 Years Into the Future: Dynamic Assessment Reduces Bias and Increases Classification Accuracy
Language, Speech, and Hearing Services in Schools, October 2018, Vol. 49, 875-888. doi:10.1044/2018_LSHSS-DYSLC-18-0021
History: Received January 29, 2018 , Revised May 3, 2018 , Accepted July 9, 2018
 
Language, Speech, and Hearing Services in Schools, October 2018, Vol. 49, 875-888. doi:10.1044/2018_LSHSS-DYSLC-18-0021
History: Received January 29, 2018; Revised May 3, 2018; Accepted July 9, 2018

Purpose The purpose of this study was to examine how well a kindergarten dynamic assessment of decoding predicts future reading difficulty at 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th grade and to determine whether the dynamic assessment improves the predictive validity of traditional static kindergarten reading measures.

Method With a small variation in sample size by grade, approximately 370 Caucasian and Hispanic students were administered a 3-min dynamic assessment of decoding and static measures of letter identification and phonemic awareness at the beginning of kindergarten. Oral reading fluency was then assessed at the end of Grades 2–5. In this prospective, longitudinal study, predictive validity was estimated for the Caucasian and Hispanic students by examining the amount of variance the static and dynamic assessments explained and by referring to area under the curve and sensitivity and specificity values.

Results The dynamic assessment accounted for variance in reading ability over and above the static measures, with fair to good area under the curve values and sensitivity and specificity. Classification accuracy worsened when the static measures were included as predictor measures. The results of this study indicate that a very brief dynamic assessment can predict with approximately 75%–80% accuracy, which kindergarten students will have difficulty in learning to decode up to 6 years into the future.

Conclusions Dynamic assessment of decoding is a promising approach to identifying future reading difficulty of young kindergarten students, mitigating the cultural and linguistic bias found in traditional static early reading measures.

Acknowledgments
We wish to thank the school district administration, teachers, and graduate and undergraduate students from the University of Wyoming, Brigham Young University, and Northern Arizona University for their contributions to this project.
Order a Subscription
Pay Per View
Entire Language, Speech, and Hearing Services in Schools content & archive
24-hour access
This Article
24-hour access